Polling error - Armarium Interreta

Has Australian Polling Accuracy Changed Over Time?

Look closer, and you’ll notice the big errors were always there under the hood. It’s just that we never really focused on them.

Do State Election Polling Errors Predict Federal Election Polling Errors?

The new Newspoll has performed reasonably well at three recent state elections. Does this have any implications for its accuracy at the upcoming federal election?

Is There A Shy Tory Effect In Australian Polling?

Examining whether Australian polls tend to under-estimate support for conservative parties and causes, as well as determining if any effects are due to “shy Tories” or to sampling issues.

Addendum: Pollster Herding and Sample Bias

If polls herd as much as they did in 2019, weighting by education isn’t necessarily going to save them.

Examining potential causes of the 2019 Australian federal polling error

Using a model of pollster herding and sampling bias, we examine hypotheses for the polling error seen in the 2019 Australian federal election.