Polling - Armarium Interreta

Has Australian Polling Accuracy Changed Over Time?

Look closer, and you’ll notice the big errors were always there under the hood. It’s just that we never really focused on them.

Pandemic Politics: Incumbent Governments Voting Intention

Although most incumbent governments saw a big boost in their vote in the first month of the pandemic, we show that the pandemic bounce has completely faded for most incumbents.

Arctic Wolves in Polling

A brief intro to Bayesian statistics in English, and why our model only barely includes the latest (18/Feb/21) Newspoll in its margin of error.

Pandemic Politics: Minor Party Voting Intention

Despite claims otherwise by underperforming minor parties, any effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on minor party voting intention likely did not significantly influence election outcomes.