An analysis of how the seat vote model in Meridiem performed, and some analysis of possible areas of improvement for election modelling.
Meridiem
How Meridiem performed – Part I
An analysis of how Meridiem 2021 performed on the metrics we previously set out, comparing it to the Basic model and summarising possible areas of improvement.
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Upside/Downside: WA 2021
A look at potential best- and worst-case scenarios for each party at Saturday’s Western Australian state election.
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How we intend to judge our WA 2021 forecast
In a spirit of pre-registration, here’s how we intend to judge the performance of our WA 2021 forecast (Meridiem 2021).
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Arctic Wolves in Polling
A brief intro to Bayesian statistics in English, and why our model only barely includes the latest (18/Feb/21) Newspoll in its margin of error.
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How our Western Australia state model works (Meridiem 2021)
We’ve built a forecast for the 2021 Western Australian state election. Here’s the in-depth technical detail on how it works.
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