An examination of how the electoral map shifts if Labor continues to trade voters in historically-Labor electorates for voters in historically-Liberal electorates.
Electoral pendulum
Addendum: Realignment versus Reversion
A follow-up to our piece on improving uniform swing, prompted by an interesting question about the problem of seat realignments.
Improving Seat Forecasts Made Using The Uniform Swing Model
How data from older elections can help, and why our forecast differs from a uniform swing in its prognostications for Colton and Hartley.
How Predictive is the Pre-Election Pendulum?
Or, in other words: if we know the pendulum ahead of an election favours one side, does that tell us anything about whether that side is actually favoured at the election?
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