The gory detail of how we model distributions of preferences to produce three-candidate-preferred (3cp) estimates for our 3cp explorer, among other things.
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Elections
How Close Was the 2022 Australian Federal Election?
A recent comment heard in person about the closeness of the 2022 Australian federal election made me want to try my hand at analysing how close it was, in a historical context.
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A Repeat of the 2019 Polling Error Would Still See Labor Ahead
We explore the electoral map if the Coalition over-performs its polls again.
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Addendum: Realignment versus Reversion
A follow-up to our piece on improving uniform swing, prompted by an interesting question about the problem of seat realignments.
Improving Seat Forecasts Made Using The Uniform Swing Model
How data from older elections can help, and why our forecast differs from a uniform swing in its prognostications for Colton and Hartley.
Why a House/Senate Split Election Is Bad for The Government
What little history there is of split House/Senate elections suggests that the government would be making its life much harder if it opted for one, for little gain.
How Much Impact Does The Economy Have on Australian Federal Elections?
An analysis of the relationship between the strength of the Australian economy and federal election results.
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The Breakdown of the (199)6-Party System
Beating Bush and Bill Clinton by a hair in the 1992 election, third-party candidate Perot nevertheless stamps deep marks into the future of US politics and policy. Alternate universe now reporting on: The Perot Presidency.
Pandemic Politics: Minor Party Voting Intention
Despite claims otherwise by underperforming minor parties, any effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on minor party voting intention likely did not significantly influence election outcomes.
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Perot: Long Shot or Unprecedented President?
Ross Perot’s candidacy was not that much of a long shot as people might assume at first sight.