Australian state polling - Armarium Interreta

Has Australian Polling Accuracy Changed Over Time?

Look closer, and you’ll notice the big errors were always there under the hood. It’s just that we never really focused on them.

Do State Election Polling Errors Predict Federal Election Polling Errors?

The new Newspoll has performed reasonably well at three recent state elections. Does this have any implications for its accuracy at the upcoming federal election?

Arctic Wolves in Polling

A brief intro to Bayesian statistics in English, and why our model only barely includes the latest (18/Feb/21) Newspoll in its margin of error.

State polling has historically skewed to incumbents. Will that continue?

Historically, state voting intention polls have tended to show better results for the party in power than the election-day result. However, recent trends suggest the possibility that this pattern will not continue.