Australian federal polling - Armarium Interreta

Has Australian Polling Accuracy Changed Over Time?

Look closer, and you’ll notice the big errors were always there under the hood. It’s just that we never really focused on them.

Do State Election Polling Errors Predict Federal Election Polling Errors?

The new Newspoll has performed reasonably well at three recent state elections. Does this have any implications for its accuracy at the upcoming federal election?

Anchoring, Honeymoons, and Voting Intention in the 2016 – 2019 Term

Anchoring polls, and how it might be used to infer voting intention for the 2016 – 2019 term by accounting for government honeymoons.

Addendum: Pollster Herding and Sample Bias

If polls herd as much as they did in 2019, weighting by education isn’t necessarily going to save them.

Examining potential causes of the 2019 Australian federal polling error

Using a model of pollster herding and sampling bias, we examine hypotheses for the polling error seen in the 2019 Australian federal election.