Why COVID is not going to cost you that much. Nor will it cost your children. In fact, why it’s the cheapest debt we’ve ever taken on.
Australia
Addendum: Pollster Herding and Sample Bias
If polls herd as much as they did in 2019, weighting by education isn’t necessarily going to save them.
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How would optional preferential voting have affected federal elections?
One of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters’ (JSCEM) recommendations following the 2019 Australian federal election was the introduction of Optional Preferential Voting (OPV). Here, we model how the introduction of OPV would have affected the outcomes of recent federal elections.
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Examining potential causes of the 2019 Australian federal polling error
Using a model of pollster herding and sampling bias, we examine hypotheses for the polling error seen in the 2019 Australian federal election.
Biggest State Election Landslides
For some context for how massive the win at tomorrow’s WA state election is, we go through some of the largest wins in state election history.
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State polling has historically skewed to incumbents. Will that continue?
Historically, state voting intention polls have tended to show better results for the party in power than the election-day result. However, recent trends suggest the possibility that this pattern will not continue.
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How our Western Australia state model works (Meridiem 2021)
We’ve built a forecast for the 2021 Western Australian state election. Here’s the in-depth technical detail on how it works.
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Is Queensland Labor a model for the centre-left?
Queensland Labor has been held up as an model of success in challenging environments, but is their electoral record as extraordinary as some claim?