We’ve built a forecast for the 2022 South Australian state election. Some background on the election, and how our model works.
Australia
Why a House/Senate Split Election Is Bad for The Government
What little history there is of split House/Senate elections suggests that the government would be making its life much harder if it opted for one, for little gain.
Do Outlier Polls Tend To Get It Right?
Over the past few months, some pollsters have begun to publish very different voting-intention figures from the rest of the industry. Historically, have such outliers ended up closer to the mark than the consensus?
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How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Ignore the Polls (For Now)
While final polling is quite accurate, polls taken too far out from election day have little predictive value.
Approval Ratings Are Rubbish, But They Have Value
They’re more the sort of thing you’d chuck into recycling than landfill.
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How Predictive is the Pre-Election Pendulum?
Or, in other words: if we know the pendulum ahead of an election favours one side, does that tell us anything about whether that side is actually favoured at the election?
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How Much Impact Does The Economy Have on Australian Federal Elections?
An analysis of the relationship between the strength of the Australian economy and federal election results.
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Anchoring, Honeymoons, and Voting Intention in the 2016 – 2019 Term
Anchoring polls, and how it might be used to infer voting intention for the 2016 – 2019 term by accounting for government honeymoons.
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Greens at the Gates?
Some data regarding recent discussion of a hung parliament by the Australian Greens and the Australia Labor Party.
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Is There A Shy Tory Effect In Australian Polling?
Examining whether Australian polls tend to under-estimate support for conservative parties and causes, as well as determining if any effects are due to “shy Tories” or to sampling issues.
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