We redistribute the 2022 Australian federal election results to the state electoral boundaries in place for the upcoming Victorian state election.
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Australia Votes 2022
Federal Election 2022 Miscellany
A collection of details from the final forecast and random findings, each too small for a separate piece.
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Has Australian Polling Accuracy Changed Over Time?
Look closer, and you’ll notice the big errors were always there under the hood. It’s just that we never really focused on them.
What Happens if the Electoral Realignment in 2019 Continues?
An examination of how the electoral map shifts if Labor continues to trade voters in historically-Labor electorates for voters in historically-Liberal electorates.
Why a House/Senate Split Election Is Bad for The Government
What little history there is of split House/Senate elections suggests that the government would be making its life much harder if it opted for one, for little gain.