For some context for how massive the win at tomorrow’s WA state election is, we go through some of the largest wins in state election history.
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Politics
Our political analyses, discussions, and data on Armarium Interreta.
Upside/Downside: WA 2021
A look at potential best- and worst-case scenarios for each party at Saturday’s Western Australian state election.
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How we intend to judge our WA 2021 forecast
In a spirit of pre-registration, here’s how we intend to judge the performance of our WA 2021 forecast (Meridiem 2021).
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The Breakdown of the (199)6-Party System
Beating Bush and Bill Clinton by a hair in the 1992 election, third-party candidate Perot nevertheless stamps deep marks into the future of US politics and policy. Alternate universe now reporting on: The Perot Presidency.
Arctic Wolves in Polling
A brief intro to Bayesian statistics in English, and why our model only barely includes the latest (18/Feb/21) Newspoll in its margin of error.
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State polling has historically skewed to incumbents. Will that continue?
Historically, state voting intention polls have tended to show better results for the party in power than the election-day result. However, recent trends suggest the possibility that this pattern will not continue.
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How our Western Australia state model works (Meridiem 2021)
We’ve built a forecast for the 2021 Western Australian state election. Here’s the in-depth technical detail on how it works.
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Is Queensland Labor a model for the centre-left?
Queensland Labor has been held up as an model of success in challenging environments, but is their electoral record as extraordinary as some claim?
Pandemic Politics: Minor Party Voting Intention
Despite claims otherwise by underperforming minor parties, any effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on minor party voting intention likely did not significantly influence election outcomes.
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Perot: Long Shot or Unprecedented President?
Ross Perot’s candidacy was not that much of a long shot as people might assume at first sight.