Anchoring polls, and how it might be used to infer voting intention for the 2016 – 2019 term by accounting for government honeymoons.
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Politics
Our political analyses, discussions, and data on Armarium Interreta.
Greens at the Gates?
Some data regarding recent discussion of a hung parliament by the Australian Greens and the Australia Labor Party.
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Is There A Shy Tory Effect In Australian Polling?
Examining whether Australian polls tend to under-estimate support for conservative parties and causes, as well as determining if any effects are due to “shy Tories” or to sampling issues.
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Addendum: Pollster Herding and Sample Bias
If polls herd as much as they did in 2019, weighting by education isn’t necessarily going to save them.
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Pandemic Politics: Incumbent Governments Voting Intention
Although most incumbent governments saw a big boost in their vote in the first month of the pandemic, we show that the pandemic bounce has completely faded for most incumbents.
How would optional preferential voting have affected federal elections?
One of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters’ (JSCEM) recommendations following the 2019 Australian federal election was the introduction of Optional Preferential Voting (OPV). Here, we model how the introduction of OPV would have affected the outcomes of recent federal elections.
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How Meridiem performed – Part II
An analysis of how the seat vote model in Meridiem performed, and some analysis of possible areas of improvement for election modelling.
Which areas drove the swing to Labor in WA 2021?
In the recent 2021 Western Australian state election, the Labor government won a massive swing to them, winning a record 69.7% of the two-party-preferred vote. Here, we examine factors which correlate with the size of the swing in various districts.
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Examining potential causes of the 2019 Australian federal polling error
Using a model of pollster herding and sampling bias, we examine hypotheses for the polling error seen in the 2019 Australian federal election.
How Meridiem performed – Part I
An analysis of how Meridiem 2021 performed on the metrics we previously set out, comparing it to the Basic model and summarising possible areas of improvement.
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