How data from older elections can help, and why our forecast differs from a uniform swing in its prognostications for Colton and Hartley.
Politics
Our political analyses, discussions, and data on Armarium Interreta.
How our South Australian state model works (Bornite 2022)
We’ve built a forecast for the 2022 South Australian state election. Some background on the election, and how our model works.
Why a House/Senate Split Election Is Bad for The Government
What little history there is of split House/Senate elections suggests that the government would be making its life much harder if it opted for one, for little gain.
Do Outlier Polls Tend To Get It Right?
Over the past few months, some pollsters have begun to publish very different voting-intention figures from the rest of the industry. Historically, have such outliers ended up closer to the mark than the consensus?
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Why Theories of Polling Bias Don’t Make Sense
Everyone who works on polling and polling analysis is actively incentivized to forecast election results as accurately as possible; and even if they weren’t, influencing public opinion isn’t as easy as it may seem.
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How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Ignore the Polls (For Now)
While final polling is quite accurate, polls taken too far out from election day have little predictive value.
Approval Ratings Are Rubbish, But They Have Value
They’re more the sort of thing you’d chuck into recycling than landfill.
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How Predictive is the Pre-Election Pendulum?
Or, in other words: if we know the pendulum ahead of an election favours one side, does that tell us anything about whether that side is actually favoured at the election?
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How Much Impact Does The Economy Have on Australian Federal Elections?
An analysis of the relationship between the strength of the Australian economy and federal election results.
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How to Create Your Own Highly-Accurate Election Forecasting Model
No polls! Polls bad! They failed in 2019 and with Trump and remember Brexit? Our model predicts all those correctly!