We’ve built a forecast for the 2021 Western Australian state election. Here’s the in-depth technical detail on how it works.
Read more…Read more…
Is Queensland Labor a model for the centre-left?
In a recent article discussing Australian Labor’s decline in small-town Australia, acclaimed progressive campaign strategist and pollster Kosmos Samaras concludes by holding up Queensland Labor as a model of electoral success. Here, I examine whether Queensland Labor’s performance is truly as extraordinary as claimed.
Read more…Read more…
Pandemic Politics: Minor Party Voting Intention
Despite claims otherwise by underperforming minor parties, any effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on minor party voting intention likely did not significantly influence election outcomes.
Read more…Read more…
Perot: Long Shot or Unprecedented President?
In a new video by the thought-provoking AlternateHistoryHub, they describe a Ross Perot win in 1992 as “incredibly unlikely”. However, Perot’s polling and coalition could have allowed him to win even without a plurality of the vote, had he not dropped out midway.
Read more…Read more…
Pandemic Politics: Incumbent Governments
Contrary to popular belief, the average incumbent government made no net gains in elections held during the pandemic, with only weak evidence that governments who oversaw COVID-19 explosions suffered electorally.
Read more…Read more…
The USA Electoral College’s Biggest Problem Isn’t Small-State Bias
Instead, winner-take-all is the largest reason why the Electoral College margins look very different from the popular vote, even when it picks the right winner.
Read more…Read more…
Pandemic Politics: Minor Parties
The advent of a global pandemic has significantly shifted the contours of politics and especially of elections and electioneering. Here, we look at the performance of minor parties in elections throughout the COVID era.
Read more…Read more…
The Sun Will Shine on Us Again
A look at historical repeat performances by previously-defeated presidential candidates in the USA.
Read more…Read more…
Stage Directions
Pull down Marx’s Capital from the shelf, and he will tell you that value should be correlated to the labour put into it. Pick up Chesterton, and he’ll say that a thing must be loved before it is lovable. In beginning to write, we don’t appeal to either philosophy for justification.
Read more…Read more…