An analysis of how the seat-by-seat vote model in Meridiem performed, and some analysis of possible areas of improvement for the model.
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Which areas drove the swing to Labor in WA 2021?
In the recent 2021 Western Australian state election, the Labor government won a massive swing to them, winning a record 69.7% of the two-party-preferred vote. Here, we examine factors which correlate with the size of the swing in various districts.
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Examining potential causes of the 2019 Australian federal polling error
Using a model of pollster herding and sampling bias, we examine two hypotheses for the significant and systematic polling error seen in the 2019 Australian federal election.
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How Meridiem performed – Part I
An analysis of how Meridiem 2021 performed on the metrics we previously set out, comparing it to the Basic model and summarising possible areas of improvement.
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Biggest State Election Landslides
For some context for how massive the win at tomorrow’s WA state election is, we go through some of the largest wins in state election history.
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Upside/Downside: WA 2021
A look at potential best- and worst-case scenarios for each party at Saturday’s Western Australian state election.
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How we intend to judge our WA 2021 forecast
In a spirit of pre-registration, here’s how we intend to judge the performance of our WA 2021 forecast (Meridiem 2021).
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The Breakdown of the (199)6-Party System
Beating Bush and Bill Clinton by a hair in the 1992 election, third-party candidate Perot nevertheless stamps deep marks into the future of US politics and policy. Alternate universe now reporting on: The Perot Presidency.
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Arctic Wolves in Polling
A brief intro to Bayesian statistics in English, and why our model only barely includes the latest (18/Feb/21) Newspoll in its margin of error.
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State polling has historically skewed to incumbents. Will that continue?
Historically, state voting intention polls have tended to show better results for the party in power than the election-day result. However, recent trends suggest the possibility that this pattern will not continue.
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