Or, in other words: if we know the pendulum ahead of an election favours one side, does that tell us anything about whether that side is actually favoured at the election?
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How Much Impact Does The Economy Have on Australian Federal Elections?
An analysis of the relationship between the strength of the Australian economy and federal election results.
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How to Create Your Own Highly-Accurate Election Forecasting Model
No polls! Polls bad! They failed in 2019 and with Trump and remember Brexit? Our model predicts all those correctly!
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Anchoring, Honeymoons, and Voting Intention in the 2016 – 2019 Term
Anchoring polls, and how it might be used to infer voting intention for the 2016 – 2019 term by accounting for government honeymoons.
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Greens at the Gates?
Some data regarding recent discussion of a hung parliament by the Australian Greens and the Australia Labor Party.
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Is There A Shy Tory Effect In Australian Polling?
Examining whether Australian polls tend to under-estimate support for conservative parties and causes, as well as determining if any effects are due to “shy Tories” or to sampling issues.
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Pandemic Economics: The Curious Case of Uncostly Debt
Why COVID is not going to cost you that much. Nor will it cost your children. In fact, why it’s the cheapest debt we’ve ever taken on.
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Addendum: Pollster Herding and Sample Bias
If polls herd as much as they did in 2019, weighting by education isn’t necessarily going to save them.
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Pandemic Politics: Incumbent Governments Voting Intention
Although most incumbent governments saw a big boost in their vote in the first month of the pandemic, we show that the pandemic bounce has completely faded for most incumbents.
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How would optional preferential voting have affected federal elections?
One of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters’ (JSCEM) recommendations following the 2019 Australian federal election was the introduction of Optional Preferential Voting (OPV). Here, we model how the introduction of OPV would have affected the outcomes of recent federal elections.
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