And why our 2022 South Australian forecast differs from a uniform swing in its prognostications for Colton and Hartley.
Read more…Read more…
How our South Australian state model works (Bornite 2022)
We’ve built a forecast for the 2022 South Australian state election. Some background on the election, and how our model works.
Read more…Read more…
Why a House/Senate Split Election Is Bad for The Government
What history there is of split House/Senate elections suggests that the government would be making its life much harder for little gain if it opted for one.
Read more…Read more…
Do Outlier Polls Tend To Get It Right?
Over the past few months, some pollsters have begun to publish very different voting-intention figures from the rest of the industry. Historically, have such outliers ended up closer to the mark than the consensus?
Read more…Read more…
Who Suckered Jobs From Whom?
Wherein America steals Mexican jobs, American manufacturing employment increases post-NAFTA, and no, this is not a joke.
Read more…Read more…
Inflation-Immune Imperium
According to myth, Roman inflation ends Roman empires. According to me (and a barrage of evidence), I’d like to see someone try to prove it.
Read more…Read more…
Hey, the 1970s are calling. They want their inflation fears back.
An update, and a more somber look at the earning side of pandemic economics.
Read more…Read more…
Why Theories of Polling Bias Don’t Make Sense
Everyone who works on polling and polling analysis is actively incentivized to forecast election results as accurately as possible; and even if they weren’t, influencing public opinion isn’t as easy as it may seem.
Read more…Read more…
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Ignore the Polls (For Now)
While final polling is quite accurate, polls taken too far out from election day have little predictive value.
Read more…Read more…
Approval Ratings Are Rubbish, But They Have Value
They’re more the sort of thing you’d chuck into recycling than landfill.
Read more…Read more…