An analysis of how the seat vote model in Meridiem performed, and some analysis of possible areas of improvement for election modelling.
Models
Our models and forecasts on Armarium Interreta
How Meridiem performed – Part I
An analysis of how Meridiem 2021 performed on the metrics we previously set out, comparing it to the Basic model and summarising possible areas of improvement.
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How we intend to judge our WA 2021 forecast
In a spirit of pre-registration, here’s how we intend to judge the performance of our WA 2021 forecast (Meridiem 2021).
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Arctic Wolves in Polling
A brief intro to Bayesian statistics in English, and why our model only barely includes the latest (18/Feb/21) Newspoll in its margin of error.
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How our Western Australia state model works (Meridiem 2021)
We’ve built a forecast for the 2021 Western Australian state election. Here’s the in-depth technical detail on how it works.
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