The gory detail of how we model distributions of preferences to produce three-candidate-preferred (3cp) estimates for our 3cp explorer, among other things.
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Models
Our models and forecasts on Armarium Interreta
Federal Election 2022 Miscellany
A collection of details from the final forecast and random findings, each too small for a separate piece.
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A Repeat of the 2019 Polling Error Would Still See Labor Ahead
We explore the electoral map if the Coalition over-performs its polls again.
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Addendum: Realignment versus Reversion
A follow-up to our piece on improving uniform swing, prompted by an interesting question about the problem of seat realignments.
Improving Seat Forecasts Made Using The Uniform Swing Model
How data from older elections can help, and why our forecast differs from a uniform swing in its prognostications for Colton and Hartley.
How our South Australian state model works (Bornite 2022)
We’ve built a forecast for the 2022 South Australian state election. Some background on the election, and how our model works.
Approval Ratings Are Rubbish, But They Have Value
They’re more the sort of thing you’d chuck into recycling than landfill.
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How Predictive is the Pre-Election Pendulum?
Or, in other words: if we know the pendulum ahead of an election favours one side, does that tell us anything about whether that side is actually favoured at the election?
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How Much Impact Does The Economy Have on Australian Federal Elections?
An analysis of the relationship between the strength of the Australian economy and federal election results.
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Anchoring, Honeymoons, and Voting Intention in the 2016 – 2019 Term
Anchoring polls, and how it might be used to infer voting intention for the 2016 – 2019 term by accounting for government honeymoons.
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