A model of the upcoming 2024 Queensland state election using voting intention polls, historical performance and trends to model the election. We then run 100,000 simulations with random polling errors and random deviation from predicted swing to forecast the election.
Our QLD 2024 forecast below is final. No further forecast updates are expected.
When the results in all electorates are confirmed, this page will be updated to reflect the actual outcomes where applicable.
The Liberal Nationals are somewhat favoured to form government
We currently estimate that Labor will win between 44.1% and 51.9% of the two-party-preferred (2pp) vote on election day, with a median 2pp prediction of Labor 48.0%.
Seat totals forecast
The forecasted distribution of seats for each party/grouping. Higher bars indicate outcomes which happened more frequently in our simulations. In the Labor/Liberal National histograms, dashed lines represent the number of seats needed for an outright majority.
We’d expect the total number of seats won by each party/grouping to end up between the 1st and 3rd quartile about half the time. The seat total for each party should only fall outside the Lower/Upper ends once every 64 elections; roughly equivalent to the chances of flipping five coins and getting all heads.
Probability of various outcomes
| Order | Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Labor wins an outright majority | 4 in 100 |
| 2 | Labor needs the Greens for a majority | 9 in 100 |
| 3 | The Liberal Nationals win an outright majority | 54 in 100 |
| 4 | The Liberal Nationals need Katter's Australian Party for a majority | 24 in 100 |
| 5 | Hung parliament, government unclear | 9 in 100 |
| Order | Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Labor wins more seats than the Liberal National Party | 16 in 100 |
| 2 | The Liberal National Party wins more seats than Labor | 81 in 100 |
| 3 | No party has a plurality | 3 in 100 |
District by district probabilistic forecast
This table shows how often each party/grouping won each district in every 100 simulations.
| District | Labor | LNP | Greens | PHON | Katter | Others | Competitiveness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algester | 99+ | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.00 |
| Aspley | 44 | 56 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.44 |
| Bancroft | 93 | 07 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.07 |
| Barron River | 33 | 67 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.33 |
| Bonney | < 1 | 99+ | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.00 |
| Broadwater | < 1 | 99+ | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.00 |
| Buderim | < 1 | 99+ | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.00 |
| Bulimba | 94 | 06 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.06 |
| Bundaberg | 15 | 85 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.15 |
| Bundamba | 99 | < 1 | < 1 | 01 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.01 |
| Burdekin | 02 | 98 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.02 |
| Burleigh | 08 | 92 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.08 |
| Burnett | < 1 | 99+ | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.00 |
| Cairns | 54 | 46 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.46 |
| Callide | < 1 | 99+ | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.00 |
| Caloundra | 21 | 79 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.21 |
| Capalaba | 87 | 13 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.13 |
| Chatsworth | 07 | 93 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.07 |
| Clayfield | 06 | 89 | 05 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.11 |
| Condamine | < 1 | 99+ | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.00 |
| Cook | 68 | 24 | < 1 | < 1 | 08 | < 1 | 0.32 |
| Coomera | 07 | 93 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.07 |
| Cooper | 45 | 12 | 43 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.55 |
| Currumbin | 08 | 92 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.08 |
| Everton | 04 | 96 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.04 |
| Ferny Grove | 85 | 15 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.15 |
| Gaven | 59 | 41 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.41 |
| Gladstone | 99+ | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.00 |
| Glass House | 05 | 95 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.05 |
| Greenslopes | 85 | 05 | 10 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.15 |
| Gregory | < 1 | 99+ | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.00 |
| Gympie | < 1 | 99+ | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.00 |
| Hervey Bay | 10 | 90 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.10 |
| Hill | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 99+ | < 1 | 0.00 |
| Hinchinbrook | < 1 | 18 | < 1 | < 1 | 82 | < 1 | 0.18 |
| Inala | 99+ | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.00 |
| Ipswich | 98 | < 1 | < 1 | 02 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.02 |
| Ipswich West | 95 | 03 | < 1 | 02 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.05 |
| Jordan | 99 | 01 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.01 |
| Kawana | < 1 | 99+ | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.00 |
| Keppel | 55 | 41 | < 1 | 04 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.45 |
| Kurwongbah | 94 | 06 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.06 |
| Lockyer | < 1 | 99+ | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.00 |
| Logan | 93 | 05 | < 1 | 02 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.07 |
| Lytton | 98 | 02 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.02 |
| MacAlister | 85 | 15 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.15 |
| Mackay | 66 | 33 | < 1 | 01 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.34 |
| Maiwar | < 1 | 17 | 83 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.17 |
| Mansfield | 56 | 44 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.44 |
| Maroochydore | < 1 | 99+ | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.00 |
| Maryborough | 92 | 07 | < 1 | 01 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.08 |
| McConnel | 34 | 11 | 55 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.45 |
| Mermaid Beach | 01 | 99 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.01 |
| Miller | 86 | 04 | 10 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.14 |
| Mirani | 01 | 49 | < 1 | 16 | 34 | < 1 | 0.51 |
| Moggill | 02 | 92 | 06 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.08 |
| Morayfield | 98 | 01 | < 1 | 01 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.02 |
| Mount Ommaney | 91 | 09 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.09 |
| Mudgeeraba | < 1 | 99+ | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.00 |
| Mulgrave | 92 | 08 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.08 |
| Mundingburra | 36 | 64 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.36 |
| Murrumba | 93 | 07 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.07 |
| Nanango | < 1 | 99+ | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.00 |
| Nicklin | 15 | 85 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.15 |
| Ninderry | 01 | 99 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.01 |
| Noosa | < 1 | 01 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 99 | 0.01 |
| Nudgee | 99 | 01 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.01 |
| Oodgeroo | 02 | 98 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.02 |
| Pine Rivers | 69 | 31 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.31 |
| Pumicestone | 39 | 61 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.39 |
| Redcliffe | 53 | 47 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.47 |
| Redlands | 42 | 58 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.42 |
| Rockhampton | 13 | 23 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 64 | 0.36 |
| Sandgate | 99 | 01 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.01 |
| Scenic Rim | < 1 | 99+ | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.00 |
| South Brisbane | 07 | < 1 | 93 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.07 |
| Southern Downs | < 1 | 99+ | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.00 |
| Southport | 01 | 99 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.01 |
| Springwood | 71 | 29 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.29 |
| Stafford | 96 | 04 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.04 |
| Stretton | 97 | 03 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.03 |
| Surfers Paradise | < 1 | 99+ | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.00 |
| Theodore | 03 | 97 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.03 |
| Thuringowa | 21 | 75 | < 1 | < 1 | 04 | < 1 | 0.25 |
| Toohey | 97 | 03 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.03 |
| Toowoomba North | < 1 | 99+ | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.00 |
| Toowoomba South | < 1 | 99+ | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.00 |
| Townsville | 24 | 76 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.24 |
| Traeger | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 99+ | < 1 | 0.00 |
| Warrego | < 1 | 99+ | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.00 |
| Waterford | 99 | 01 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.01 |
| Whitsunday | 05 | 95 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.05 |
| Woodridge | 99+ | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | < 1 | 0.00 |