The new Newspoll has performed reasonably well at three recent state elections. Does this have any implications for its accuracy at the upcoming federal election?
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Month: March 2022
Upside/Downside: SA 2022
A look at potential best- and worst-case scenarios for each party in today’s South Australian state election.
Addendum: Realignment versus Reversion
A follow-up to our piece on improving uniform swing, prompted by an interesting question about the problem of seat realignments.
Improving Seat Forecasts Made Using The Uniform Swing Model
How data from older elections can help, and why our forecast differs from a uniform swing in its prognostications for Colton and Hartley.
How our South Australian state model works (Bornite 2022)
We’ve built a forecast for the 2022 South Australian state election. Some background on the election, and how our model works.