South Australia State Election 2022 Forecast

A model of the upcoming 2022 South Australia state election using various inputs such as voting intention polls and historical performance to model the election. We then run 100 000 simulations to forecast the election.
Summary of the methodology and how this differs from our WA 2021 forecast here >>

Why some of our seat forecasts might differ from a uniform swing >>

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Our SA 2022 forecast below is final. No further updates are expected.

Labor is clearly favoured to form government

This is our forecast for the 2-party-preferred (2pp) vote. The probability of the Liberal 2pp vote ending up in each of the above areas is described by the legend above the chart (so for example, there’s a 50% chance that the Liberal 2pp vote ends up in the grey area).

We currently estimate that the Liberals will win between 41% and 51% of the two-party-preferred (2pp) vote on election day. This range will likely narrow if we get more polling closer to election day.

Seat totals forecast

The forecasted distribution of seats for each party/grouping. Higher bars indicate outcomes which happened more frequently in our simulations. Dashed lines represent the number of seats needed for an outright majority.

Probabilistic forecast for Labor and Liberal seat totals

Probabilistic forecast for Greens and Others seat totals

The range of seat total estimates for all of the above parties/groupings:

Party	Lower	Median	Upper	Order
Labor	21	26	33	1
Liberals	11	18	24	2
Greens	0	0	0	3
Others	1	3	5	4

(the actual seat total result for each party/grouping should fall between the Lower and Upper values 95% of the time)

Liberal vs Labor seat margin forecast

The forecasted distribution of (Liberal seats – Labor seats), which is usually a decent proxy for the chances of either side forming government. Higher bars indicate seat margin outcomes which occurred more frequently in our simulations.

Probabilistic histogram of the Liberal - Labor seat margin

Probability of various outcomes

Swarm plot of forecasted Liberal 2-party-preferred, shaded by expected outcome.

Order	Outcome	Probability
1	The Liberals win an outright majority	4 in 100
2	The Liberals likely remain in minority govt (23 LIB seats, 22 or fewer ALP seats)	2 in 100
3	Labor wins an outright majority	83 in 100
4	Labor likely forms a minority govt (23 ALP seats, 22 or fewer LIB seats)	6 in 100
5	Hung parliament, govt unclear	5 in 100

Order	Outcome	Probability
1	The Liberals win the most seats	7 in 100
2	Labor wins the most seats	90 in 100
3	No party has a plurality	3 in 100

Order	Outcome	Probability
1	The winner of the 2pp has the most seats or is tied for the most seats	96
2	The winner of the 2pp has fewer seats than the loser of the 2pp	4

How the forecast has changed over time

District-by-district probabilistic forecast

This table shows how often each party/grouping won each district in every 100 simulations.

Note: not a forecast of the vote each party is expected to win in each electorate.

District	Labor	Liberal	Greens	Others
Adelaide	79	21	< 1	< 1
Badcoe	>99	< 1	< 1	< 1
Black	43	57	< 1	< 1
Bragg	< 1	>99	< 1	< 1
Chaffey	< 1	>99	< 1	< 1
Cheltenham	>99	< 1	< 1	< 1
Colton	62	38	< 1	< 1
Croydon	>99	< 1	< 1	< 1
Davenport	40	59	< 1	1
Dunstan	19	81	< 1	< 1
Elder	85	15	< 1	< 1
Elizabeth	>99	< 1	< 1	< 1
Enfield	>99	< 1	< 1	< 1
Finniss	1	99	< 1	< 1
Flinders	< 1	>99	< 1	< 1
Florey	>99	< 1	< 1	< 1
Frome	< 1	>99	< 1	< 1
Gibson	15	85	< 1	< 1
Giles	>99	< 1	< 1	< 1
Hammond	< 1	>99	< 1	< 1
Hartley	58	42	< 1	< 1
Heysen	7	93	< 1	< 1
Hurtle Vale	>99	< 1	< 1	< 1
Kaurna	>99	< 1	< 1	< 1
Kavel	< 1	45	< 1	55
King	95	5	< 1	< 1
Lee	>99	< 1	< 1	< 1
Light	>99	< 1	< 1	< 1
MacKillop	< 1	>99	< 1	< 1
Mawson	91	9	< 1	< 1
Morialta	20	80	< 1	< 1
Morphett	16	84	< 1	< 1
Mount Gambier	< 1	2	< 1	98
Narungga	< 1	59	< 1	41
Newland	64	8	< 1	28
Playford	>99	< 1	< 1	< 1
Port Adelaide	>99	< 1	< 1	< 1
Ramsay	>99	< 1	< 1	< 1
Reynell	>99	< 1	< 1	< 1
Schubert	< 1	>99	< 1	< 1
Stuart	< 1	36	< 1	64
Taylor	>99	< 1	< 1	< 1
Torrens	>99	< 1	< 1	< 1
Unley	8	92	< 1	< 1
Waite	21	72	< 1	7
West Torrens	>99	< 1	< 1	< 1
Wright	>99	< 1	< 1	< 1

Update (10/Mar/2022): Added link to the methodology writeup, as well as a table showing our model’s predictions for the possibility of a mismatch between the winner of the 2-party-preferred and the party with the largest number of seats. Historically, the South Australian Electoral District Boundaries Commission (EDBC) has had to draw electoral maps which ensured that the party who won the 2-party-preferred would also win a majority of seats.

However this is no longer the case after the repeal of the “fairness” provision. The EDBC has still attempted to draw a “fair” map, with 23 districts estimated to be notionally Labor, 23 estimated to be notionally Liberal and one ultra-marginal seat at a 2pp of 50/50. The presence of several Liberal-to-Independent defectors, alongside the possibility of non-uniform swings, threatens to throw a spanner into this attempt at fairness and hence I thought including these statistics may be of interest to readers.

Update (16/Mar/2022): Fixed a minor bug in the state vote to electorate vote conversion model. Net effect on most seats is fairly small (under 0.5% for most seats on the 2pp) but may have significant impacts on probability forecasts for seats which were very close to begin with.