Bornite 2022

A model of the upcoming 2022 South Australia state election using various inputs such as voting intention polls and historical performance to model the election. We then run 100 000 simulations to forecast the election.
Summary of the methodology and how this differs from our WA 2021 forecast here >>

Why some of our seat forecasts might differ from a uniform swing >>

If you like models and analyses like these, please consider supporting us on Patreon or donating to us using the PayPal button on the sidebar.

Labor is clearly favoured to form government

There was an issue displaying the chart. Please edit the chart in the admin area for more details.

This is our forecast for the 2-party-preferred (2pp) vote. The probability of the Liberal 2pp vote ending up in each of the above areas is described by the legend above the chart (so for example, there’s a 50% chance that the Liberal 2pp vote ends up in the grey area).

We currently estimate that the Liberals will win between 41% and 51% of the two-party-preferred (2pp) vote on election day. This range will likely narrow if we get more polling closer to election day.

Seat totals forecast

The forecasted distribution of seats for each party/grouping. Higher bars indicate outcomes which happened more frequently in our simulations. Dashed lines represent the number of seats needed for an outright majority.

The range of seat total estimates for all of the above parties/groupings:

(the actual seat total result for each party/grouping should fall between the Lower and Upper values 95% of the time)

Liberal vs Labor seat margin forecast

The forecasted distribution of (Liberal seats – Labor seats), which is usually a decent proxy for the chances of either side forming government. Higher bars indicate seat margin outcomes which occurred more frequently in our simulations.

Probability of various outcomes

How the forecast has changed over time

There was an issue displaying the chart. Please edit the chart in the admin area for more details.

District-by-district probabilistic forecast

This table shows how often each party/grouping won each district in every 100 simulations.

Note: not a forecast of the vote each party is expected to win in each electorate.

Update (10/Mar/2022): Added link to the methodology writeup, as well as a table showing our model’s predictions for the possibility of a mismatch between the winner of the 2-party-preferred and the party with the largest number of seats. Historically, the South Australian Electoral District Boundaries Commission (EDBC) has had to draw electoral maps which ensured that the party who won the 2-party-preferred would also win a majority of seats.

However this is no longer the case after the repeal of the “fairness” provision. The EDBC has still attempted to draw a “fair” map, with 23 districts estimated to be notionally Labor, 23 estimated to be notionally Liberal and one ultra-marginal seat at a 2pp of 50/50. The presence of several Liberal-to-Independent defectors, alongside the possibility of non-uniform swings, threatens to throw a spanner into this attempt at fairness and hence I thought including these statistics may be of interest to readers.

Update (16/Mar/2022): Fixed a minor bug in the state vote to electorate vote conversion model. Net effect on most seats is fairly small (under 0.5% for most seats on the 2pp) but may have significant impacts on probability forecasts for seats which were very close to begin with.