No truth stands alone.
In the recent 2021 Western Australian state election, the Labor government won a massive swing to them, winning a record 69.7% of the two-party-preferred vote. Here, we examine factors which correlate with the size of the swing in various districts.
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Using a model of pollster herding and sampling bias, we examine hypotheses for the polling error seen in the 2019 Australian federal election.
An analysis of how Meridiem 2021 performed on the metrics we previously set out, comparing it to the Basic model and summarising possible areas of improvement.
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For some context for how massive the win at tomorrow’s WA state election is, we go through some of the largest wins in state election history.
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A look at potential best- and worst-case scenarios for each party at Saturday’s Western Australian state election.
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In a spirit of pre-registration, here’s how we intend to judge the performance of our WA 2021 forecast (Meridiem 2021).
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