Beating Bush and Bill Clinton by a hair in the 1992 election, third-party candidate Perot nevertheless stamps deep marks into the future of US politics and policy. Alternate universe now reporting on: The Perot Presidency.
Month: February 2021
Arctic Wolves in Polling
A brief intro to Bayesian statistics in English, and why our model only barely includes the latest (18/Feb/21) Newspoll in its margin of error.
Read more…Read more…
State polling has historically skewed to incumbents. Will that continue?
Historically, state voting intention polls have tended to show better results for the party in power than the election-day result. However, recent trends suggest the possibility that this pattern will not continue.
Read more…Read more…
How our Western Australia state model works (Meridiem 2021)
We’ve built a forecast for the 2021 Western Australian state election. Here’s the in-depth technical detail on how it works.
Read more…Read more…