We redistribute the 2022 Australian federal election results to the state electoral boundaries in place for the upcoming Victorian state election.
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How our Model of Preference Distribution Works (and How Accurate Is it?)
The gory detail of how we model distributions of preferences to produce three-candidate-preferred (3cp) estimates for our 3cp explorer, among other things.
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How Close Was the 2022 Australian Federal Election?
A recent comment heard in person about the closeness of the 2022 Australian federal election made me want to try my hand at analysing how close it was, in a historical context.
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Federal Election 2022 Miscellany
A collection of details from the final forecast and random findings, each too small for a separate piece.
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A Repeat of the 2019 Polling Error Would Still See Labor Ahead
We explore the electoral map if the Coalition over-performs its polls again.
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Has Australian Polling Accuracy Changed Over Time?
Look closer, and you’ll notice the big errors were always there under the hood. It’s just that we never really focused on them.
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What Happens if the Electoral Realignment in 2019 Continues?
An examination of how the Australian federal electoral map shifts if Labor continues to trade voters in historically-Labor/marginal electorates for voters in historically-Liberal electorates.
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Do State Election Polling Errors Predict Federal Election Polling Errors?
The new Newspoll has performed reasonably well at three recent state elections. Does this have any implications for its accuracy at the upcoming federal election?
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Upside/Downside: SA 2022
A look at potential best- and worst-case scenarios for each party in today’s South Australian state election.
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Addendum: Realignment versus Reversion
A follow-up to our piece on improving uniform swing, prompted by an interesting question about the problem of seat realignments.
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